Saturday, February 23, 2008

Braves not feared by most

Originally Posted on 2/19/08

Series of Team Overviews for 2008; Atlanta Braves

For the majority of the 90's and early part of the next decade the Braves were the standard in the National League. But now after two straight seasons without a post-season berth, the Braves are just an after thought amongst the premier teams. Part of the problem with the team has been the constant changes at the top (ownership) and struggle to compete with the likes of other powerhouses financially. In recent years the Braves have rejected the notion of making runs at big name free agents or just keeping their own. We will officially see the teams stance this coming off-season when the team will be forced to dish out large sums of money to keep soon to be free agent, Mark Teixeira. The Braves are likely to just let Teixeira walk just as Andruw Jones did this off-season when he agreed to a two year contract with the LA Dodgers. Although you could make the case that Teixeira, who was acquired via trade during the 2007 season, was obtained to not only make a late attempt towards the playoffs but also fill the hole for Jones (knowing he was on the out).

In the past though, for every big name that left such as Javier Lopez, Rafael Furcal, etc... it didn't really matter because a new player like a Brian McCann or Edgar Renteria would just step in. The Braves have always re-stocked with their own home grown talent or traded for key pieces when needed which is why manager Bobby Cox and former general manager and current team President John Schuerholz have been so widely respected in the game.

But in 2008, the Braves aren't expected to make the playoffs, stretching their current run to three seasons. Bottom line for Atlanta is it's just becoming more and more difficult to fill holes. Just look no further to Jones replacement, which is Mark Kotsay. The Braves did however bring back one familiar face in re-signing future Hall of Famer, pitcher, Tom Glavine. Glavine joins his old-pal and another future Hall of Famer, pitcher, John Smoltz. All they need to do now is trade for Greg Maddux to reunite one of the greatest starting threesomes ever... it's not going to happen but even if it did, we're still talking about three 40+ year old pitchers. It will however be both Smoltz and Glavine along with pitcher Tim Hudson leading the Braves staff and hoping they'll be able to keep a few leads that the potent offense will muster.

Looking further into the offense we see the already mentioned Teixeira at first and across the diamond we have another potential Hall of Famer in third baseman Chipper Jones. Problem with Chipper is he too is getting to be older and has constantly fought off injuries late in his career. My over under for games played in this year for Chipper is 135. The Braves would be lucky to get that. In the middle of infield we have two young players that are both home grown in second baseman Kelly Johnson (he has some pop) and the athletic shortstop (replacing the traded Edgar Renteria) Yunel Escobar. The outfield is still dangerous even without a constant gold glover in Jones with Matt Diaz in left, Kotsay in center and the big bat of Jeff Francoeur in right. Behind the plate will be All-Star catcher, Brian McCann. Other than that, the bench is really thin so the Braves will hope to stay healthy on the offensive side!

On the pitching staff we have Smoltz, Glavine and Hudson but then we have two more injury questions with Chuck James and Mike Hampton (both lefties). If either can't start then look for the Braves to insert one of their many young arms of Jair Jurrgens (acquired in Renteria trade with Detroit), Buddy Carlyle, Anthony Lerew and Jo-Jo Reyes. In the bullpen, there is no more Bob Wickman, which is a good thing but Atlanta also lost Octavio Dotel (a late pick up before the 2007 deadline). Dotel signed a multi-year deal with the White Sox which leaves the closer duties in the capable hands of Rafael Soriano and set-up man Mike Gonzalez. Also in the pen will be Will Ohman and Pete Moylan.

Braves fans, don't expect too much but enjoy the middle of that lineup cause it can put some runs on the board when healthy. Also, if you're a fan of Teixeira, get his autograph now as he may not be in Atlanta past 2008.

Projected Lineup:
1. Yunel Escobar, SS
2. Kelly Johnson, 2b
3. Chipper Jones, 3b
4. Mark Teixeira, 1b
5. Brian McCann, C
6. Jeff Francoeur, RF
7. Matt Diaz, LF
8. Mark Kotsay, CF

Final Five:

1. Fantasy Value: Don't let everything I mentioned above scare you off too much, the Braves will compete but just not past late July or early August for playoff hopes. But there is a lot to be excited about from a fantasy baseball perspective. Just look at the middle of this lineup and you'll see multiple players with 25+ HR potential and 85-100+ RBI's. Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira will always have great numbers come season end (unless injured) and McCann is a top five catcher. Francoeur is no slouch either and would probably be batting 3rd, 4th or 5th on most other teams. Diaz has a lot of potential and I for one and looking forward to what he can do in a full season starting. Plus the top of the lineup can score a lot of runs if they reach base. Both Johnson and Escobar have great value at their positions, especially Johnson with a weak 2b list. On the reverse, Smoltz is still a top 20 starter and Glavine and Hudson should be slightly above average with Hudson showing a slightly better pitching value due to strikeouts he can get vs. the soft throwing Glavine. Look for Soriano to have a successful year in his first as a closer.

2. Most likely to be traded: This is a tough one, I think the Braves stay pat for the most part but if they fall apart early and know they won't be able to re-sign Teixeira then don't be surprised if the big man is traded. Koktsay is another name that could be moved to make room for Braves prospects.

3. Break out Player in 2008: Two names come to mind, Yunel Escobar and Matt Diaz. I think due to his overall athleticism, I have to go with Escobar as he should hit double digit HR's and have a good batting average while playing a solid shortstop.

4. Farm Top Five: Another Jones is making headlines in Atlanta's organization and it's not Chipper or the departed Andruw but Brandon Jones. This Jones has an outside chance to make the squad with a great Spring Training showing and could play left or center but he is more likely to start in the minors for more training. After Jones, we have pitching prospects Jair Jurrgens and Jo-Jo Reyes and Manny Acosta who could be in the bullpen to start the season. Another talented player is outfielder Jordan Schafer who is the leading candidate for long-term success in center.

5. 2008 Predicted Record: 83-79, 3rd place in the NL East

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