Sunday, March 2, 2008

Baby Steps for Royals

Series of Team Overviews for 2008; Kansas City Royals

Over the course of the last 14 years, the Kansas City Royals have had one winning season, coming in 2003 when Tony Pena managed the Royals to a 83-79 record. Of course in 2003, the Royals still had Carlos Beltran in centerfield and a much younger Mike Sweeney, who is currently fighting for a job in Oakland. Less than two seasons later though, we would see Tony Pena leave as manager before Buddy Bell stepped in only to be fired heading into this season. From 2004-2006, the Royals lost 104, 106 and 100 games (not respectively). Last year, the Royals spent a little and developed some arms and others while ultimately losing 93 games... so, some steps were made and even though most of their counterparts in the AL Central have improved, the Royals are still expected to finish in last but maybe they'll hover a little bit closer to a .500 record, which for Kansas City, would mean more baby steps closer to success.

Taking over the reigns as manager in 2008 will be Trey Hillman, who Royals general manager, Dayton Moore recruited over from Japan where Hillman had been very successful. Then there are this years additions, after the Royals spent big dollars last year to get starter Gil Meche, this year we'll see steroid era user, outfielder Jose Guillen and two new names in the bullpen with Japanese import Yasuhiko Yabuta and lefty specialist Ron Mahay (who spurred the Yanks to sign in KC).

What will really be interesting to see out of Kansas City though will be the continued development of the young talent on the roster. Other than the newly signed Guillen and ace starter Meche, you really only have second baseman Mark Grudzielanek as the veterans on the club. I guess you can include newly signed Brett Tomko too but the only time I've ever liked Tomko was when he played for the Giants as I loved seeing the team struggle with him on the mound (glad he's no longer a Dodger... where he was referred to as Bomko). Back to the rest of the roster, such young talents as converted third baseman turned outfielder Mark Teahen and centerfielder David DeJesus along with third baseman Alex Gordon and the power hitting 1b/DH combo Billy Butler should be exciting to see. Plus you have a young catcher in John Buck that is capable of hitting 20+ homeruns a year. So offensively, the Royals should score some runs... not as much as their counterparts but enough to compete with solid pitching.

On the mound, returning for the second year of his five year contract is Meche, followed by rising starters Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke. All are potential 10-15 game winners but the rest of the rotation is a little uneasy with Tomko, Kyle Davies, Jorge De La Rosa and Luke Hochevar (a top prospect). Kansas City also has Brian Lawrence and well-known Hideo Nomo in camp trying to earn rotation spots too. The bullpen however is a little more solidified with Joakim Soria expecting to close behind Mahay, Joel Peralta and Yabuta. Also rounding out the pen will be Jimmy Gobble, John Bale and Chin-Hui Tsao.

Overall, the Royals will be more competitive both in their division and within the clubhouse with position battles keeping everyone playing hard all season long.

Projected Lineup:
1. David DeJesus, CF
2. Mark Teahen, LF
3. Alex Gordon, 3b
4. Jose Guillen, RF
5. Billy Buter, 1b/DH
6. Ross Gload, 1b/DH
7. John Buck, C
8. Mark Grudzielanek, 2b
9. Tony Pena, SS

Final Five:

1. Fantasy Value: The Royals, mostly due to their lack of potential wins, don't have a lot of strong value for fantasy but they do have some sleepers. Starting with the top of the lineup, DeJesus was coveted by many teams in the off-season for trades (since the Royals also have speedster Gathright in the wings) but ultimately the Royals decided to keep him. Last years numbers don't necessarily stand out with less than 10 bombs and only 10 steals but he DeJesus did score over 100 runs. With Teahen, lots of potential but the power numbers just haven't come around like expected yet... then you have the power in catcher Buck (hit 18 HR's in '07) but he batted just .222. The real potential falls in the lap of Gordon and Butler (both 2nd year players) who are both capable of .300 plus averages and 15-25+ HR's with decent stats for RBI's and runs. Sadly the most value on offense is Guillen who hit 23 HR's and 99 RBI's in pitcher friendly Safeco field last year. With pitchers, Meche, Greinke and Bannister should all have decent ERA's but run production will be up and down for these arms. Soria should close out most wins due to tight scores.

2. Most likely to be traded: Any veterans on this team shouldn't get too comfortable. Once the Royals fall out of the race in June, players will be moved in July. Teams in the pennant race will need bench help and bullpen arms so guys named Grudzielanek and extra starters will be dangled. Also, don't be surprised if the Royals give up on Teahen or DeJesus before their value dips even lower.

3. Break-out Player in 2008: It was supposed to be his season last year but Alex Gordon got off to a horrible start, much like George Brett, who is commonly compared to. But in 2008, I see a more confident Gordon and a more consistent Major League bat.

4. Farm Top Five: With a team that lacks star quality in the bigs, you'd hope for a strong farm system but the Royals are really lacking in that department too. Topping the list though is potential starter Luke Hochevar who should start by mid to late season. Then you have last years #2 overall pick with infielder Michael Moustakas and long-time minor leaguer, first baseman Justin Huber followed by outfielders Mitch Maier and Chris Lubanski.

5. 2008 Record Prediction: 73-89, 5th in AL Central